[Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)] NHL Analysis Islanders @ Senators Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Islanders @ Senators (Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Islanders @ Senators

Islanders projected starting goalie: Ilya Sorokin @ Senators projected starting goalie: Linus Ullmark

The long view favors Ottawa and the current-season view favors New York, so this game likely turns on which goalie holds up better.

Even with last season blended in because it is early, 5v5 xG% is 48.4 for the Islanders and 54.2 for the Senators, a 5.8-point edge for Ottawa. This season alone it flips: 48.7 for the Islanders against 44.5 for the Senators. Ottawa is 5-2 (goals 21-19) but even at 5v5, 12-12. New York is 3-3 (19-15) with a 12-7 5v5 margin.

Sorokin has a +19.0 GSAx on the road over 31 starts (.912, 18-12-1), and this season he is at .934 with +5.3 over five games, all of it within his last five. Ullmark is +1.7 at home over 26 games (.910, 14-7-5), but this season he is .948 and +6.6 at 5-0, with +6.7 over his last five.

The Islanders have won one straight after beating Vancouver 3-2. The Senators lost 2-7 to St. Louis after winning 4-1 in New Jersey. New York lost the last two meetings.

If the goalies change, the picture shifts. Both starters are unconfirmed. Semyon Varlamov has one game this season (.864, +0.6, 0-1). Samuel Ersson is .829 with -4.5 over three games (0-2) and -7.8 at home.

In summary, the blended numbers favor Ottawa and this season's numbers favor New York. If Sorokin and Ullmark start, the matchup between two hot goalies is the key. A change in net would affect Ottawa most.