[Oct 18, 2026 (Sun)] NHL Analysis Sabres @ Canadiens Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Sabres @ Canadiens (Oct 18, 2026 (Sun)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Sabres @ Canadiens Sabres projected starting goalie: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen @ Canadiens projected starting goalie: Jakub Dobes

This game turns on whether Dobes, at +11.3 GSAx at home, shakes off a -7.7 GSAx stretch over his last five, or Luukkonen, at -5.2 this season, returns to his road form.

Even blending in last season, Buffalo leads 5v5 xG% 51.1 to 49.8; this season alone it is 54.2 to 52.5. The Sabres are 4-3-1 with a 24-30 goal difference (17-18 at 5v5). The Canadiens are 3-3-1 at 23-27 (13-16 at 5v5), and two of their recent wins came past regulation, so the record may be inflated.

Dobes has a .898 SV% and +11.3 GSAx over 24 home starts across two seasons, but this season he sits at .842 and -5.9, and he allowed five last time. Luukkonen is .907 and +3.7 on the road over 22 games, but .854 and -5.2 this season, with four allowed last time.

Buffalo won 5-4 in overtime at Toronto and has won one straight. Montreal lost 4-5 at Washington. Montreal won the October 14 meeting in a shootout, a small-sample footnote.

If Buffalo switches to Colten Ellis, he is .864 and -0.3 GSAx this season, -1.4 on the road. If Montreal goes to Jacob Fowler, he is .906 and +1.3 this season, +6.0 at home.

In summary, Buffalo holds a slim edge in 5v5 xG%. The key is which Dobes shows up, and whether Fowler gets the start.