[Sep 27, 2026 (Sun)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Carp @ BayStars Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Carp @ BayStars (Sep 27, 2026 (Sun)).

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The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

09/27 Carp vs BayStars

Carp starting pitcher: Kuribayashi Ryoji BayStars starting pitcher: Katayama Hiromi

This is a one-off game (1 of 1). The 3rd-place BayStars (.507) lost 8-3 to the Tigers last time out, while the 5th-place Carp (.427) have won two straight after taking three of four from the Giants. The BayStars dominate the season series 14-7.

Kuribayashi Ryoji has a 2.61 ERA and 2.21 FIP over 110.1 innings, so both results and process are excellent. His command stands out, with a 3.5% walk rate and 19% K-BB%, and a 30.3% CSW% shows he gets strikes easily. His last five starts (34.1 innings) kept that going with a 2.91 FIP and 19.9% K-BB%, although his opponent average has risen from .205 on the season to .252. His average velocity has been steady at 143-144 km/h. On the road, where he pitches today, he has a 2.43 ERA and 2.22 FIP over 55.2 innings, in line with his season.

Katayama Hiromi has thrown only 37.1 innings this year, so the sample is small. His 2.65 ERA looks good, but his FIP is 3.33 and his walk rate is high at 12.3%. His last five starts (29.2 innings) look superb on the surface, with a .143 opponent average and only four runs allowed, but a .184 BABIP and 91.2% LOB% mean luck played a big role, and the 15 walks he issued in that stretch may not have shown up in the results yet. His SwStr% (9.6%) and CSW% (29.9%) say the stuff itself is fine. His average velocity sits around 140-142 km/h. At home, where he pitches today, he has a 3.48 ERA and 3.52 FIP over 20.2 innings, a bit worse than his season line.

The head-to-head history cuts in an interesting way. Kuribayashi has a 4.82 ERA in three starts (18.2 innings) against the BayStars, and his last two meetings went poorly (6 earned runs in 6.2 innings on 8/27, 4 in 5 innings on 9/12). Still, with one walk and 17 strikeouts his FIP against them is 2.69, and a low 60.4% LOB% inflated the runs. Katayama is 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA and only eight hits allowed in three starts (17.1 innings) against the Carp, though he walked 10 in those games. Both are three-start samples.

Neither lineup is confirmed yet, so these are based on each team's previous game. Both offenses are cold. The Carp's last-five team wOBA is .259, below their season .283, and they scored only one to three runs in each of the four games against the Giants. Sakakura Shogo is hot (.454 wOBA over the last five) but is 0-for-8 against Katayama, while Sasaki Tai is 3-for-7 against him but has a .119 wOBA over the last five. The BayStars' last-five team wOBA is .274, well below their season .337, with just one homer in five games. Maki Shugo, who has 30 homers (172.3 wRC+), and Tsutsugo Yoshitomo (149.8 wRC+) anchor the lineup, and Watarai Ryuki is 3-for-6 against Kuribayashi but has cooled badly (.099 wOBA over the last five). All of these are small samples of around 10 plate appearances.

The Carp have a slight bullpen edge, with a 2.62 ERA over the last 10 games against 3.18 for the BayStars. Recent workloads are similar (12 innings by 6 pitchers for the Carp, 13 innings by 9 for the BayStars). At Yokohama Stadium it is expected to be 21°C with a 30% chance of rain, so weather should not be a major issue.

In summary, Kuribayashi is clearly the better pitcher on the season, but the BayStars have hit him well this year. Katayama's results are strong, but they lean on walks going unpunished and some luck, so with a sample this small it is worth watching. The biggest swing factor is whether Katayama, who walks a lot of hitters, can get away with his command issues against a cold Carp lineup.