[Sep 28, 2026 (Mon)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Eagles @ Lions Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Eagles @ Lions (Sep 28, 2026 (Mon)).

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09/28 Eagles vs Lions

Eagles starting pitcher: Takayuki Kishi Lions starting pitcher: Chihiro Sumida

This is the second game of a two-game set, played on a Monday night at Belluna Dome right after yesterday's opener. The Lions sit 2nd (.563) on a two-game winning streak, while the Eagles are 6th (.400) and have dropped two straight. The Lions lead the season series 15-8 and took yesterday's game 3-2. Standings and head-to-head are already well known, so treat them as context only - the real story today is on the mound.

Start with the Lions' Chihiro Sumida. Over 166 innings he has a 2.22 ERA and a 2.26 FIP, a rare case where the results and the underlying numbers line up almost exactly. His 12.4% SwStr% and 31.6% CSW% show he misses bats and wins counts, and a 3.3% walk rate means he hardly gives anything away. His last five starts have been even better: a 1.76 FIP and 24.8% K-BB% over 39 innings, averaging 7.8 innings per start. His average fastball has held at 146-148 km/h (topping out at 149-152), so there is no sign of late-season fatigue. He is at home today, where he owns a 2.47 ERA and an even better 2.14 FIP over 102 innings despite a slightly high .302 BABIP.

Against the Eagles he has been close to untouchable: three starts, 25 innings, a 0.72 ERA, including back-to-back scoreless outings on August 22 (8 IP) and August 29 (9 IP). Three starts is a small sample, so we can't assume it simply continues, but it is clear the Eagles have found almost no answer for him this year.

The Eagles' Takayuki Kishi has a solid-looking 2.80 ERA over 61 innings, but his FIP is 3.37, more than half a run higher. A .266 BABIP and 76.7% LOB% may have helped his results, and with a modest 8.8% SwStr% and 28.6% CSW% he survives on command (about a 6% walk rate) rather than swing-and-miss stuff. He pitches on the road today, where his 2.43 ERA and 3.16 FIP over 37 innings came with a very low .220 BABIP - whether that luck holds is something we'll have to watch given the sample size. His last five starts (31 IP) show a 3.65 FIP and four home runs allowed, a bit shakier than his season line, while his velocity has stayed steady at 138-140 km/h.

His record against the Lions is not encouraging: three starts, 17 innings, a 4.24 ERA and 4.08 FIP, and losses in his last two meetings (6 IP, 5 ER on July 20; 5 IP, 3 ER on August 30). It's another three-start sample, but it points in exactly the opposite direction from Sumida's line against the Eagles.

Neither lineup has been confirmed yet, so the following is based on each team's most recent lineup. The Eagles' bats have gone cold - team average down from .251 on the season to .203 over the last five games, with wOBA dropping from .306 to .264. Carson McCusker (135.7 wRC+, 23 HR) is hitting just .188 in that stretch, and against Sumida, Rui Muneyama (0-for-6), McCusker (0-for-6) and Daisuke Nakashima (2-for-10) have mostly been shut down (small samples of 3-10 at-bats per hitter). The Lions have cooled a little too, from .255 to .225 over the last five. Cleanup hitter Tyler Nevin (139.4 wRC+) is at .167 lately, while Shuta Tonosaki (.308) and Kazunari Ishii (.333) are swinging well. Against Kishi, Natsuo Takizawa (3-for-5) and Tonosaki (3-for-7) stand out, again in small samples.

The bullpen picture runs the other way. The Lions' pen has thrown 13⅓ innings (9 pitchers) over the last three games and carries a 3.73 ERA over the last ten, while the Eagles have used only 3 innings (3 pitchers) and sport a 2.82 ERA. That said, if Sumida gives 7-8 innings as he has lately, the Lions' bullpen workload may barely matter. It's a dome, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, the starting matchup tilts heavily to one side today. Sumida has been excellent in both results and process and has dominated the Eagles, while Kishi's underlying numbers trail his ERA and he has struggled in his last two starts against the Lions. The biggest variable is whether an Eagles lineup hitting .203 over its last five games can break a pattern in which it has scored just two runs in 25 innings against Sumida this season - and, if not, whether Sumida can go deep enough to keep the game away from a heavily used Lions bullpen.