[Sep 28, 2026 (Mon)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Carp @ BayStars Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Carp @ BayStars (Sep 28, 2026 (Mon)).

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

09/28 Carp vs BayStars

Carp starting pitcher: Taiki Kudo BayStars starting pitcher: Katsuki Azuma

This is the second game of a two-game set, played Monday night at Yokohama Stadium after yesterday's opener. The BayStars are 3rd (.504) but have lost two straight, while the Carp are 5th (.432) and have won three in a row. The BayStars lead the season series 14-8, but the Carp won yesterday 5-3. Standings are context only, so let's start with the pitchers.

There is very little to go on with the Carp's Taiki Kudo. His entire top-team record this season is two short relief outings - two innings on August 29 and two-thirds of an inning on September 5, for 2⅔ innings total - and he has no starts. In that tiny sample he has a 3.38 ERA, a 14.7% SwStr% and an average fastball of 149-151 km/h, but no metric means much over 2⅔ innings. He has never faced the BayStars. The fair way to see it is that today's starter is essentially an unknown, and how long he'll last is uncertain too.

The BayStars' Katsuki Azuma has a 2.32 ERA and 2.86 FIP over 155 innings, good on both results and process, and his 4.1% walk rate is his biggest weapon. With a 10.3% SwStr% and 29.1% CSW%, he wins by piling up strikes rather than by missing bats. His average velocity has climbed from 140.7 to 145 km/h over his last five starts, so his late-season form looks fine. That said, his 87.3% LOB% over those last five starts (31 IP) is very high next to a 2.77 FIP, and in his most recent outing on September 22 he walked four in five innings and allowed three runs - unusually loose command for him. He is at home today, where his 2.30 ERA over 82 innings comes with a much higher 3.52 FIP. A .244 BABIP and 83.6% LOB% may have helped those results, so it's better not to lean too hard on the home ERA given the sample.

Against the Carp he has been strong: a 2.22 ERA and 2.04 FIP over five starts (44⅔ IP). Still, he was knocked around for six earned runs in 5⅔ innings on July 15, and Ryosuke Kikuchi has hit him better than anyone on the Carp at 9-for-20 (.450) - a reasonably meaningful sample for an individual matchup.

Neither lineup has been confirmed yet, so this is based on each team's most recent lineup. The trends here are interesting. The BayStars have a strong offense on the season (.333 wOBA, 123.4 wRC+), but it has gone ice-cold over the last five games at .188 with a .265 wOBA. Leadoff man Ryuki Watarai is at .095 in that stretch, and even Shugo Maki (170.8 wRC+, 30 HR) is hitting just .200. The Carp, a weaker offense on the season (.230 average, .285 wOBA), have picked up a bit to .250 and .297 over the last five, with Shogo Sakakura red-hot at .474. Kikuchi (.111 lately) and Tai Sasaki (.059) are slumping, though Kikuchi, as noted, has hit Azuma well.

In the bullpen, the Carp have the better numbers but heavier recent usage: a 2.78 ERA over the last ten games versus 3.96 for the BayStars, but 11 innings from five pitchers over the last three games compared with 8 innings from seven for the BayStars. With Kudo possibly going short, the Carp pen may have to carry a lot of innings again today. It's 23.3°C with a 47% chance of rain at an open-air park, so rain is a slight variable to keep in mind.

In summary, the starting matchup leans toward the proven Azuma, but his home ERA looks better than his FIP and his command wavered in his last start. The biggest variable is how many innings the largely unknown Kudo can cover, and whether a BayStars lineup that has cooled to .188 over its last five games can rediscover its season-long power against a pitcher it has never seen.