[Oct 1, 2026 (Thu)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Fighters @ Marines Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Fighters @ Marines (Oct 1, 2026 (Thu)).

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/01 Fighters vs Marines

Fighters starting pitcher: Kitayama Koki Marines starting pitcher: Long Sam

This is a single game at ZOZO Marine Stadium. The Fighters are in 3rd place (.554) and the Marines 5th (.455), and the Fighters won the season series 14-10. The two teams also met last weekend (9/27-28) and split the two games.

Starting with the pitching matchup, Kitayama has strong numbers with a 2.65 ERA and 2.98 FIP over 142⅔ innings. He has a 12.0% SwStr% and 17.6% K-BB%, and his average fastball has risen from 148 km/h in June to the 150s lately. Over his last five starts (32⅓ IP), however, he has given up eight home runs, pushing his FIP up to 4.79. With a .198 opponent average and .193 BABIP, he hasn't allowed much contact, but the balls that were hit have been leaving the park.

Long has struggled this season with a 5.15 ERA and 4.59 FIP over 64⅔ innings. Over his last five starts (21 IP) his walk rate is 13.9%, with 14 walks against 11 strikeouts for a -3% K-BB%, a .349 opponent average and a 5.73 FIP. None of those five starts went past six innings, and his last start was on 8/26, so he is coming back after more than a month. His average fastball sits at 148-150 km/h.

The standout head-to-head number is the home runs Kitayama has allowed to the Marines: seven over five starts (36 IP) with a 4.25 ERA, including two homers each on 8/21, 8/28 and 7/7. The opponent average was a low .164, but his strand rate was just 42.5%. Long has a 3.00 ERA in two starts (6 IP) against the Fighters, a very small sample.

Lineups are unconfirmed and based on the last game. Both offenses are cold. The Fighters have dropped to a .247 team wOBA over the last five games (.322 on the season), with Mannami Chusei (21 HR) at .184 and Arizono Naoki at .056. The Marines have also cooled to .278 (.313 on the season). Yamaguchi Koki (33 HR, 156.5 wRC+) is their biggest threat but is 3-for-12 against Kitayama, and Yamamoto Daito is hot with a .720 wOBA and two homers over the last five games but is 0-for-7 against him. Fujiwara Kyota is 0-for-10 against Kitayama and slumping at .161.

Both bullpens are shaky. The Fighters have a 4.26 ERA over the last ten games and the Marines 5.70, with similar recent workloads of 7 innings (7 pitchers) and 7.3 innings (7 pitchers).

On splits, Kitayama has been nearly identical at home (77 IP, 3.03 FIP) and on the road (65⅔ IP, 2.92 FIP). Long's command was worse on the road, a 12.1% walk rate over 29⅔ innings versus 6.7% at home over 35, and tonight he pitches at home. It will be 24.2°C with a 1.9 m/s wind, so weather shouldn't be a big factor.

In summary, Kitayama has the clearly better underlying profile, while Long brings command problems and more than a month away from the mound. The biggest variable tonight is whether Kitayama, who has been giving up more home runs lately, can keep the ball in the park against a Marines lineup that has homered off him unusually often this year. With both bullpens unreliable, the game could also swing once the starters leave.