[Oct 4, 2026 (Sun)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Eagles @ Marines Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Eagles @ Marines (Oct 4, 2026 (Sun)).

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/04 Eagles vs Marines

Eagles starting pitcher: Takahisa Hayakawa Marines starting pitcher: Kazuya Ojima

This one is at ZOZO Marine Stadium. Both teams sit near the bottom of the Pacific League - Chiba Lotte fifth at 62-75 and Rakuten sixth at 57-83 - and the Marines clearly won the season series 15-9. Both teams won yesterday: Rakuten blanked Orix 6-0 and Chiba Lotte edged SoftBank 2-1. Before that win, though, the Marines had lost three of four, and they split a two-game set with Rakuten on September 29-30.

On paper, Hayakawa has the better numbers. He owns a 2.88 ERA and 3.15 FIP over 147 innings, with a 6.0% walk rate and 11.6% SwStr% showing both command and stuff. His last five starts have slipped to a 4.17 FIP, though, with his K-BB% dropping from 16.5% to 10.7%. He's allowed five home runs over 33 innings in that stretch, and his velocity last time out averaged a season-low 140.8 km/h. Above all, he has struggled against Chiba Lotte, losing all three starts, including an eight-run outing over five innings on July 22. His road FIP (3.21) is close to his home mark (3.10).

Ojima has been more ordinary at a 3.67 ERA and 3.93 FIP over 110.1 innings. His last five starts carry a similar 3.83 FIP, but a .352 BABIP has pushed his WHIP up to 1.58. Rakuten is a different story: he's 4-0 in four starts against them with a 1.86 ERA and 2.33 FIP over 29 innings, including a complete game on July 22. His velocity has stayed steady at 144-146 km/h.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so these numbers use each team's previous lineup. Rakuten's bats have cooled to a .282 wOBA over the last five games. Carson McCusker (24 HR, 133.4 wRC+) has slumped to .241, and Itsuki Murabayashi (.168) and Fumiya Kurokawa (.228) are also struggling, while Ryosuke Tatsumi (.412) and Rui Muneyama (.357) are the bright spots. Yuma Yasuda has owned Ojima at 6-for-7, and Murabayashi is 4-for-12 against him.

Chiba Lotte isn't much of an offensive team either, at a .315 wOBA on the season and .300 over the last five games. Koki Yamaguchi (35 HR, 158.3 wRC+) is the centerpiece and has homered twice in his last five games. Ryusei Terachi has heated up (.409), while Toshiya Sato (.232) and Kyota Fujiwara (.212) have cooled off. Fujiwara is 4-for-6 against Hayakawa.

Rakuten has the bullpen edge, with a 2.52 ERA over the last 10 games compared with 4.13 for Chiba Lotte. However, Rakuten's 15.7 recent relief innings were covered by just five pitchers, putting a heavier load on each arm, while the Marines spread 16.7 innings across 11. Expect 20.4°C with a bit of wind at 4.4 m/s and a 12% chance of rain.

In summary, Hayakawa has the better season numbers, but the head-to-head history points the other way: he's 0-3 against Chiba Lotte, and Ojima is 4-0 against Rakuten. The key is whether Hayakawa, whose stuff has dipped a bit lately, can finally break through against the Marines, and whether a cold Rakuten lineup can take advantage of Ojima's recent tendency to give up hits. Rakuten has the better bullpen, so a close game late could favor the Eagles.