[Oct 4, 2026 (Sun)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Carp @ Swallows Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Carp @ Swallows (Oct 4, 2026 (Sun)).

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

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10/04 Carp vs Swallows

Carp starting pitcher: Ryoji Kuribayashi Swallows starting pitcher: Kojiro Yoshimura

This one is at Meiji Jingu Stadium. The two teams are neck and neck in the standings - Hiroshima fourth at 60-76 and Yakult fifth at 60-79 - and the Swallows won the season series 14-10. Momentum is with Hiroshima, which went 4-1 over its last five games and beat Hanshin 6-4 yesterday. Yakult went 2-3 over the same stretch and lost 3-1 to Chunichi yesterday.

The pitching matchup leans Hiroshima's way. Kuribayashi has a 2.68 ERA and an even better 2.38 FIP over 117.1 innings, and he rarely walks anyone (3.9% BB%). His last five starts slipped a bit to a 3.28 FIP with a .320 BABIP, but he went at least seven innings in three of them. One thing to watch: he got just a 1.9% SwStr% last time out. He's 0-3 against Yakult, but two of those losses in July came despite seven scoreless innings and six innings of one-run ball. A single bad outing on August 12 (seven earned runs in four innings) produced his 4.24 ERA against them, while his 2.21 FIP shows he actually pitched well.

Yoshimura has had a rough year at 4-12 with a 4.98 ERA and 4.56 FIP over 110.1 innings. His last five starts have been worse: six home runs allowed over 24 innings, a 5.38 FIP, a .401 opponent wOBA and five straight losses. He's also been clearly worse at home (6.26 ERA, 4.78 FIP) than on the road (3.90, 4.38), which doesn't bode well for today. His velocity is still good at around 148 km/h, but it hasn't translated into results. Against Hiroshima on September 15, he lasted just two innings and gave up three earned runs.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so these numbers use each team's previous lineup. Hiroshima's offense isn't strong (.286 season wOBA) but has picked up to .318 over the last five games. Leadoff man Shosei Nakamura is the hottest bat with two homers and a .546 wOBA, and Tomoki Ishihara (.486) is also hitting well. Tai Sasaki (.126) and Keisuke Sato (.058) are slumping badly. Shogo Sakakura is just 2-for-10 against Yoshimura.

Yakult is a low-power team, with a .291 season wOBA and only 25 home runs, and it's been quiet at .285 over the last five games. Tetsuto Yamada (.549) and Shu Masuda (.401) are the hot bats. Masuda has hit Kuribayashi hard at 6-for-9, and Hideki Nagaoka is 3-for-7 against him. Yukihiro Iwata (.148), Haruto Tanaka (.130) and Yudai Koga (.109) have cooled off.

Hiroshima has a clear bullpen edge, with a 2.18 ERA over the last 10 games compared with 5.14 for Yakult. Recent workloads are light for both teams (seven innings across six arms for Hiroshima, six across seven for Yakult). Expect 20.1°C with light wind and a 22% chance of rain.

In summary, Hiroshima has the edge in starting pitching, the bullpen and recent form. Yakult's hopes rest on its season-series edge and on Masuda and Nagaoka, who have hit Kuribayashi well. The key is whether Yoshimura, who has lost five straight starts and struggled at home, can get through the early innings. If he falters early, Yakult's shaky bullpen will have to come in sooner, and the game could tilt toward Hiroshima with Kuribayashi working deep.