[Oct 11, 2026 (Sun)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis BayStars @ Giants Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of BayStars @ Giants (Oct 11, 2026 (Sun)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/11 BayStars vs Giants

BayStars starting pitcher: Ishida Yutaro Giants starting pitcher: Takemaru Kazuyuki

This is Game 2 of a three-game series. The BayStars won Game 1 yesterday 2-1, and they also won at the Tokyo Dome on 10/3, 5-2. The Giants finished the regular season 2nd (.543) and the BayStars 3rd (.507), with the Giants edging the season series 13-12. The bigger story is recent form: the Giants have gone 1-3-1 over their last five games, scoring fewer than two runs per game.

Both starters grade out well on process. Ishida Yutaro has a 2.91 ERA, 2.50 FIP and a 5.9% walk rate - he rarely gives free passes. Over his last five starts (29.2 IP) his FIP is a similar 2.93, but his SwStr% (8.5%) and CSW% (27%) are a bit below his season marks (10.2%/29.8%), and his walk rate has crept up to 8.3%. His fastball has held steady at 147-149 km/h. He has started five times against the Giants and lost all five, yet the line is 30.2 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.39 FIP, three walks and no home runs - six innings and two or three runs or fewer almost every time. Those losses look more like a lack of run support than poor pitching.

Takemaru Kazuyuki is a stuff pitcher: 3.27 ERA, 3.01 FIP and a 12.3% SwStr%. His recent form is even better - 2.76 FIP, 14.3% SwStr% and 23% K-BB% over his last 26.2 IP, and after a rough 8/15 outing against the Dragons he has allowed 0, 0, 1 and 0 earned runs in four starts. His average velocity is also up to the 148 km/h range. The one concern is the BayStars: in four starts (20 IP) he has a 5.40 ERA, 4.54 FIP and an 11.6% walk rate against them. One 3-inning, 7-run game on 8/1 drives much of that, and 20 innings is a small sample, so treat it as a minor note.

Lineups are not confirmed yet, so these are based on each team's previous game. The BayStars have a strong offense on the season (team wRC+ 126), but it has cooled to a .301 wOBA over the last five games. Maki Shugo (.401 wOBA, 31 HR) and Tsutsugo Yoshitomo (20 HR) are at .339 and .319 recently. Against Takemaru, Watarai is 3-for-8 and Maki 2-for-5 - all tiny samples. The Giants are in much worse shape: a .188 average and .258 wOBA over the last five games, and cleanup hitter Bobby Dalbec (25 HR) is hitless in that span. Izuguchi's 4-for-10 against Ishida is the one notable number.

The bullpen edge goes to the BayStars: a 2.61 bullpen ERA over the last 10 games versus 3.73 for the Giants. Recent workload is light on both sides (BayStars 11 IP with seven pitchers, Giants 8 IP with nine). It's a dome, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, Takemaru has the slightly better recent stuff, but Ishida has consistently held the Giants to two or three runs over six innings, so the starting matchup is close. The gap shows up in the lineups and bullpens: the Giants' offense is in a deep slump and the BayStars' relief corps has been better, so the BayStars look slightly favored in what projects as a low-scoring game. For the Giants to win, Takemaru likely needs to go deep in his current form and the cold lineup needs to scratch out an early run or two.