[Oct 14, 2026 (Wed)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Fighters @ Hawks Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Fighters @ Hawks (Oct 14, 2026 (Wed)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/14 Fighters vs Hawks

Fighters starting pitcher: Sachiya Yamasaki Hawks starting pitcher: Livan Moinelo

This is Game 1 of the Pacific League Climax Series Final Stage. SoftBank finished first at 91-49 (.650). This year both the second- and third-place teams finished 10 or more games back, so the Pacific final is a best-of-seven where the first team to five wins advances, and SoftBank starts with a two-win advantage. Nippon-Ham went 78-62 to finish third and beat Seibu 2-1 in the First Stage. SoftBank dominated the season series 18-5.

The pitching matchup leans heavily toward SoftBank. Moinelo posted a 0.76 ERA and a .136 opponent average in 47.1 innings, close to perfect on results. His FIP is 2.99, though, well above that ERA, and a .152 BABIP and 94.2% strand rate are hard to sustain. The stuff is real: his average fastball sits at 146-149 km/h, topping out at 153, with a 12.4% swinging-strike rate, and he allowed just 5 runs in 35.1 innings over his last five starts. Against Nippon-Ham he has a 1.33 ERA and a .153 opponent average in three starts (20.1 innings). One thing to watch is that his K-BB over the last five starts has dropped to 9%, and his last start on 9/26 was 6 scoreless innings but with 4 walks and only 2 strikeouts.

Yamasaki has a 2.67 ERA in 60.2 innings, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. With a 4.32 FIP, a 4.9% K-BB and a 7.3% swinging-strike rate, he rarely misses bats, and an 87.4% strand rate has kept his ERA low. His last five starts show the same pattern (4.40 FIP, 4.5% K-BB), and his average fastball sits around 136-139 km/h. In five starts against SoftBank (21.2 innings) he has a 3.74 ERA with big swings from game to game: 7 innings with 1 earned run on 9/1 and 6 innings with 1 earned run on 8/20, but 4 earned runs and 2 home runs in 4.2 innings on 9/8.

Lineups are not confirmed yet, so these are based on each team's previous game. SoftBank's team wRC+ is 126.8 to Nippon-Ham's 114.0. Kensuke Kondoh (185.1 wRC+) is the hottest bat, hitting .438 with 3 home runs over the last five games, while Ryoya Kurihara (40 HR) and Tomoya Masaki (28 HR) supply the power. Masaki, though, is hitting .100 over his last five. Kurihara and Masaki are each 3-for-8 against Yamasaki. Nippon-Ham's offense is cold, hitting .187 with a .273 wOBA as a team over the last five games. Franmil Reyes (32 HR) is hitting .158 in that span and Kotaro Kiyomiya .118. Against Moinelo, Reyes is 1-for-7 and Kiyomiya 0-for-4. Taiki Narama is the only one swinging a hot bat, with a .445 wOBA over his last five.

The bullpens are close on recent results: a 3.62 ERA for SoftBank and 3.71 for Nippon-Ham over the last 10 games. But Nippon-Ham used 11.3 innings (7 pitchers) getting through the three-game First Stage, while SoftBank used only 6.3 innings (7 pitchers) and is well rested. The game is at Fukuoka Dome, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, SoftBank leads in almost every area: the two-win advantage, the starting pitcher, the lineup, a rested bullpen and an 18-5 season series. Nippon-Ham's hopes rest on Moinelo's recent walk problems and very low BABIP finally catching up with him, and on Yamasaki pitching to contact like he did on 9/1 and keeping SoftBank's power bats in the park. If the Fighters' lineup stays as cold as it has been, runs will be hard to come by.