[Oct 15, 2026 (Thu)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Fighters @ Hawks Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Fighters @ Hawks (Oct 15, 2026 (Thu)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/15 Nippon-Ham vs SoftBank

Nippon-Ham starting pitcher: Kitayama Koki SoftBank starting pitcher: Uwasawa Naoyuki

This is Game 2 of the series. Third-place Nippon-Ham (78-62) visits first-place SoftBank (91-49). Nippon-Ham had won two straight before losing 6-4 last night, and the season head-to-head favors SoftBank 18-5.

The starters have near-identical season lines, but their recent form differs. Kitayama has a 2.56 ERA with a 2.92 FIP, an 11.9% SwStr% and a 28.7% CSW%, so results and process agree. His last five starts are weaker: a 4.06 FIP, 10.7% SwStr% and 27.8% CSW% over 30.1 innings, with six home runs allowed. His velocity has climbed from a 148 average to 150.9. Against SoftBank he has a 6.92 ERA over 13 innings in three starts, with a .381 BABIP and a 3.39 FIP, so the results were worse than the process. It is a small sample.

Uwasawa has a 2.39 ERA and 2.91 FIP, and his last five starts are better than his season: 33.0 innings, 2.53 FIP, 15.3% SwStr%, 30.4% CSW% and 22% K-BB%. A 94.3% strand rate means some luck on the six runs allowed, but the swing-and-miss numbers back him up. Against Nippon-Ham he has a 2.2 ERA over 45 innings with a 3.44 FIP, slightly better results than process.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so these use last game's lineups. Nippon-Ham has a 116.5 wRC+ on the season. Gunji is hitting .400 with two homers over the last five games, and Mannami is 6-for-12 against Uwasawa. Reyes is 4-for-20 against him, and Shinto is at .071 recently. SoftBank has a 130.3 wRC+ but is hitting .230/.291 over its last five. Kondo is at .375 with two homers in that stretch. Masaki is 5-for-6 against Kitayama but is at .105 recently.

In the bullpens, Nippon-Ham has used 11.7 innings across eight pitchers and SoftBank 11.3 across nine. Their last-10-game ERAs are 3.53 and 3.41. The game is at Fukuoka Dome.

In summary, this looks like a contrast between Uwasawa's strong recent form and Kitayama's rising FIP. Whether Kitayama can limit home runs and end his struggles against SoftBank is the key, and so is whether SoftBank's cooled top order wakes up.