[Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Fighters @ Hawks Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Fighters @ Hawks (Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)).

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10/16 Nippon-Ham vs SoftBank

Nippon-Ham starting pitcher: Katoh Takayuki SoftBank starting pitcher: Maeda Yugo

This is Game 3 of the Pacific Final, a best-of-seven where the first to five wins advances. SoftBank starts with four wins including the two-win advantage for the top seed, and Nippon-Ham starts with zero. Nippon-Ham finished third (55.7%, two straight wins) and SoftBank first (65.0%, two straight losses). In the regular season, Nippon-Ham went just 5-18 against SoftBank.

Katoh is 12-3 with a 2.9 ERA, but his FIP is 3.56, with a 7.5% SwStr% and 28.3% CSW%. Over his last five starts (30.1 IP) his FIP is 4.22 with four homers allowed, a 10.1% SwStr% and 27.5% CSW%, so the underlying picture has gotten heavier than the season line. His velocity is steady, averaging 137.6 to 138.8 mph-scale readings per the data, with peaks of 140 to 141. Against SoftBank he has a 3.75 ERA but a 5.94 FIP over 12 innings, with four homers. On September 10 he allowed three earned runs in seven innings, with a 23% CSW%. The sample is small, but the process looked worse than the results.

Maeda is 12-1 with a 2.1 ERA and 2.95 FIP, with a 10.9% SwStr% and 29.1% CSW%. His 85.5% strand rate helps the ERA. Over his last five starts (29.2 IP) he has a 2.27 FIP, 18.9% K-BB% and 13.1% SwStr%, but a .333 BABIP pushed his WHIP to 1.28, so the content has been better than the results. His average velocity rose from 142.5 on July 1 to 146 on October 2, topping out at 149. Against Nippon-Ham he has a 4.2 ERA but a 2.64 FIP over 15 innings, including a three-inning, four-earned-run outing on May 24.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so this uses each team's previous game. Nippon-Ham has a 115.6 wRC+ for the season but is hitting .182/.263/.230 over the last five games with one homer. Nomura Yuki is hot at .353/.450 over that stretch and is 3-for-7 against Maeda. Kiyomiya Kotaro is 3-for-8. SoftBank has a 133.1 wRC+ and is hitting .252/.327 with six homers recently. Kondo Kensuke is at .400/.526 lately but 0-for-6 against Maeda's side of the matchup data. Yanagita Yuki is 3-for-5 and Makihara Taisei 2-for-3, small samples but favorable.

In the bullpens, Nippon-Ham has used 10.3 innings across nine pitchers recently, SoftBank 14.3 innings across nine. Over the last ten games, Nippon-Ham's bullpen ERA is 4.45 and SoftBank's is 2.35. The game is at Fukuoka Dome, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, this is a matchup of Katoh, whose recent process has slipped, against Maeda, whose velocity and whiffs are both up. With Nippon-Ham down four wins and having lost two straight, Katoh's ability to contain SoftBank's power is the key. For SoftBank, whether Maeda's high BABIP regresses and how the bullpen workload plays out are the variables.