[Oct 17, 2026 (Sat)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis BayStars @ Tigers Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of BayStars @ Tigers (Oct 17, 2026 (Sat)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/17 요코하마 vs 한신

요코하마 starting pitcher: Azuma Katsuki 한신 starting pitcher: Ohtake Koutaro

This is Game 4 of the Central Final, a best-of-six first to four wins, with a one-win advantage for the top seed included. Before this game the series stands at 요코하마 3 wins, 한신 1. 요코하마 finished 71-69 (3rd, 50.7%, two straight wins), while 한신 went 79-62 (1st, 56.0%, one straight loss). The season series was 12-13 for 요코하마 and 13-12 for 한신. In the three games at Koshien, 한신 lost 2-0, 1-0 and 4-0, scoring no runs.

Azuma is 12-6 with a 2.35 ERA and a 2.84 FIP, so results have run slightly ahead of the underlying numbers, with a 10.1% SwStr% and 28.5% CSW%. Over his last five starts (31.1 IP) the FIP is 3.37, the WHIP 1.37 and the CSW% 25.6%, a step down from his season. His last outing, seven innings and one earned run against 요미우리, came with a 22.5% CSW%. His velocity is steady, averaging 142.7 to 143.2 with a peak of 144-145. On the road he has a 2.25 ERA and 2.12 FIP over 80 IP. Against 한신 he has one start, on 8/5: 7 IP, 3 earned runs, 6 strikeouts, no walks.

Ohtake is 7-9, but his 2.74 ERA and 3.00 FIP show his record undersells his work. His SwStr% is 6.3% and his CSW% 30.3%. Over his last five (25 IP) he has a 2.15 FIP, 0.96 WHIP and 33.8% CSW%, and his average velocity has risen from 137.5 to 138.6 with a peak of 142. He is far better at home (2.2 ERA, 2.47 FIP over 81.2 IP) than away (4.95 ERA, 5.14 FIP over 20 IP). Against 요코하마, though, he has a 4.15 ERA and 3.76 FIP over four starts (21.2 IP), and he allowed three earned runs in two innings on 9/6.

Both lineups are unconfirmed, so this uses the previous game's. 요코하마 hit .258/.296 with nine homers over the last five games. 마키 슈고 is at .412 with four homers over that stretch and is 2-for-7 against Ohtake. 사노 케이타 is hitting .368 lately but is 1-for-10 against him. 와타라이 류키 is 4-for-9. 한신 hit .174/.244 with no homers over the last five. 오오야마 유스케 is at .333/.444 and 2-for-3 against Azuma, a small sample.

In the bullpens, 요코하마 used 10.3 innings across seven pitchers recently against 8 innings across five for 한신. Their ERAs over the last ten games are 2.65 and 1.88. It should be 24.4°C with 4.9 m/s wind and 0% chance of rain.

In summary, this sets up as Ohtake's strong recent form against Azuma's good season but softer recent swing-and-miss numbers. Whether 한신 can end its scoreless run is the key. For 요코하마, it is whether 마키 and the lineup keep up their recent hitting.