[Oct 27, 2026 (Tue)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis BayStars @ Hawks Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of BayStars @ Hawks (Oct 27, 2026 (Tue)).

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This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/27 Yokohama vs Softbank

Yokohama starting pitcher: Azuma Katsuki Softbank starting pitcher: Matsumoto Haru

Game 3 of the Japan Series, a first-to-four-wins format, has Softbank leading 2-0 while Yokohama is still looking for its first win. Softbank took the first two games 3-1 and 4-3. In the regular season, Yokohama went 1-2 against Softbank, who went 2-1. The game is at Fukuoka Dome, with 19.6°C and a 0% chance of rain.

Yokohama's Azuma is 12-6 with a 2.34 ERA. His season FIP is 2.89, with a 10% SwStr% and 28.5% CSW%, so his results and process line up. His last five starts tell a different story: 29.1 IP, 3.92 FIP, 1.53 WHIP, .298 opponent average, 8.6% SwStr% and 24.6% CSW%. He won his last two starts with ERAs of 1.8 and 1.29, but he allowed 9 hits in 5 innings against Hanshin and posted a 22.5% CSW% against Yomiuri, so the results ran ahead of the process. His velocity has been steady, averaging 142.8 to 145 with a top of 144 to 145. He has no recorded innings against Softbank.

Softbank's Matsumoto is 12-3 with a 2.66 ERA, a 3.23 FIP, 11.6% SwStr% and 30.1% CSW%. Over his last five starts he has 30.0 IP, a 3.91 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, .208 opponent average, 11.8% SwStr% and 29.1% CSW%. His 102.3% LOB% in that stretch helped hold runs to 5, so results look a bit better than the FIP. His velocity is stable, averaging 144.5 to 145.4 with a top of 147 to 148. At home he has a 2.13 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 63.1 innings. He has no recorded innings against Yokohama.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so both are based on the previous game. Yokohama's lineup has a 123.2 season wRC+ and has hit .228/.291/.300 over the last five games. Maki Shugo is the hottest bat at .389/.522/.598 with 3 homers in that span, while Ebina Tatsuo is at .077 and Tsutsugo Yoshitomo at .200. Softbank's lineup has a 135.1 season wRC+ and has hit .284/.373/.362 over the last five games. Shoji Yudai is at .421 and Kondo Kensuke at .333/.478/.415, while Yanagita Yuki is at .200 and Makihara Taisei at .167. No batter-versus-pitcher data is available.

In the bullpen, Yokohama has used 14 innings across 9 pitchers recently, and Softbank 11 innings across 5. Over the last 10 games, bullpen ERA is 1.6 for Yokohama and 2.76 for Softbank.

In summary, Azuma is a pitcher with strong season numbers but a dip in his last five starts, and Matsumoto has recent results slightly better than his process while his swing-and-miss and CSW% marks hold up. For Yokohama, the key is whether Maki's hot streak can carry the lineup and whether Azuma can limit his recent trouble. For Softbank, the key is whether Matsumoto gets through the early innings cleanly against a lineup with recent momentum from top to bottom.