[Oct 28, 2026 (Wed)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis BayStars @ Hawks Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of BayStars @ Hawks (Oct 28, 2026 (Wed)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/28 요코하마 vs 소프트뱅크

요코하마 starting pitcher: Taira Kentaro 소프트뱅크 starting pitcher: Maeda Yugo

Game 4 of the Japan Series at Fukuoka Dome. 소프트뱅크 leads the first-to-four series 3-0 after taking the last three by 3:1, 4:3 and 2:1. In the regular season 요코하마 finished third at 71-69 and 소프트뱅크 first at 91-49. 요코하마 won 1 of 3 head-to-head meetings.

Taira Kentaro is 6-8 with a 3.13 ERA, but his 2.59 FIP says results trailed process. Over 112 innings he has a 5.3% walk rate, 11.4% SwStr% and 29.6% CSW%. His last five starts cover 27.0 innings with a 2.27 FIP, 11.5% SwStr% and 29.9% CSW%, and he allowed no earned runs in 5.2 innings on October 14. His average fastball moved from 141.4 to 140.7 and back up to 142.1. He has never started against 소프트뱅크 (0 innings).

Maeda Yugo is 13-1 with a 2.08 ERA, yet his FIP is 2.92, so results ran ahead of process. Over 116.2 innings he has an 84.6% strand rate and .268 BABIP. His last five starts (27.2 innings) show a 2.45 FIP but a 1.41 WHIP, .349 BABIP and 71.8% strand rate, while SwStr% rose to 13.8% from 10.8% on the season. His average velocity climbed from 142.5 on July 1 to 146 on October 2, then 144.3 on October 16. Against 요코하마 he has one start, 5.0 innings and one run on June 6, a very small sample.

The 요코하마 lineup is unconfirmed, so this uses the previous game's order. The team has a 128.5 wRC+ and 92 homers on the season, and .272/.318/.319wOBA over the last five. 마키 슈고 is hottest at .353/.522/.553wOBA with 2 homers in that stretch, while 쓰쓰고 요시토모 sits at .188/.188/.242wOBA. Against Maeda, 와타라이 류키 is 0-for-2, 사노 케이타 1-for-2, 쓰쓰고 0-for-1 and 미모리 마사키 0-for-2.

The 소프트뱅크 lineup is also unconfirmed and based on the previous game. The team has a 130.9 wRC+ and 146 homers, with .278/.377/.364wOBA over the last five. 마사키 토모야 is at .364/.462/.535wOBA with 3 homers lately, while 야나기타 유키 is at .143/.143/.145wOBA. No one has faced Taira.

In the bullpens, 요코하마 has used 12.3 innings across 9 pitchers recently, against 11 innings across 6 for 소프트뱅크. Their ERAs over the last ten games are 1.91 and 2.2.

In summary, Taira has pitched better than his ERA while Maeda's ERA looks stronger than his underlying numbers, though Maeda's recent swing-and-miss rate is up. Whether Taira can limit early damage around 마키 슈고's at-bats is the key, and with the last three games decided by one or two runs, bullpen handling could matter.