[Jul 22, 2026 (Wed)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Buffaloes vs Hawks Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Buffaloes vs Hawks (Jul 22, 2026 (Wed)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Buffaloes vs Hawks (07/22 18:00, MIZUHO PayPay Dome)

Starters: Buffaloes Katayama Raiku / Hawks Stewart Jr. Carter

Looking purely at the standings, the Hawks are the class of the league in 1st place (.621), with the Buffaloes sitting a tier below in 4th (.506). Recent form softens that gap a bit, though -- the Hawks dropped their last game while the Buffaloes are riding a two-game winning streak, so momentum isn't quite as lopsided as the table suggests.

The season series flips the picture even more. The Buffaloes actually lead this matchup 8-5 on the year, so regardless of where each team sits in the standings, the Buffaloes have held their own against the Hawks all season -- a real reversal from what the table alone would suggest.

On the mound, Stewart has been sitting a firm 150-152 km/h over his last five outings, clearly overpowering Katayama's 144-146 km/h stuff. Season ERA tells the opposite story, though -- Katayama's 3.20 is far better than Stewart's ugly 5.84, making this a matchup where velocity and results point in different directions.

That split shows up even more in recent form. Katayama's FIP over his last five starts has ballooned to 5.58, and the sample itself is a red flag -- just 13 innings across five outings, suggesting he's been getting pulled early. Stewart, by contrast, has a recent FIP of 3.42, well ahead of his season ERA, meaning his underlying performance has actually been better than the ugly earned-run numbers suggest.

Katayama's track record against the Hawks specifically backs up the short-outing concern -- his last two starts against them (June 24, April 28) lasted just 3.1 and 0.2 innings, and both ended in losses.

Both lineups should be treated as unconfirmed tonight, since neither team has locked in a fresh card and both are listed off their previous game's lineup.

Both offenses have cooled recently, though the Hawks, despite sitting atop the league, have faded harder, dropping from a .258 season average to .218 over their last five games, while the Buffaloes are down a more modest .260 to .231.

The bullpens aren't close. The Hawks relief corps has been sharp with a 2.16 recent ERA, well ahead of the Buffaloes 4.86, giving Fukuoka a clear edge in the late innings.

Put it all together and while the standings point to the Hawks, the season series and Katayama's recent form gap in the rotation matchup actually tilt toward the Buffaloes in a few spots, so whether Stewart's stuff can finally translate into results is the real thing to watch tonight.