[Jul 24, 2026 (Fri)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Carp vs Swallows Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Carp vs Swallows (Jul 24, 2026 (Fri)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Carp vs Swallows (07.24 18:00, Jingu Stadium)

Starters: Carp Aduwa Makoto / Swallows Takahashi Keiji

Looking purely at the standings, the third-place Swallows (.477) sit one spot above the fifth-place Carp (.415), and both sides come in on one-game winning streaks. The Swallows also hold an 8-6 edge in this years head-to-head series, so the standings and matchup history both lean their way. On the mound, Takahashi Keijis fastball has been climbing steadily since June, up from the 148 km/h range into the 149s, while Aduwa Makoto only has one recent data point (142.5 km/h on July 17), making it hard to call a trend either way. Takahashis season ERA sits at a solid 3.30 against Aduwas shakier 5.40, though Takahashis FIP over his last five starts (3.77) is a touch worse than his season number, suggesting his form has cooled slightly (over a healthy 28-plus-inning sample). Aduwas recent FIP of 5.92 comes from just one five-inning outing, so it is too small a sample to read much into. Takahashi has faced the Carp once this year, on June 21, and actually pitched well, five innings, six hits, two earned runs, a 3.60 ERA, despite taking the loss; Aduwa has no recorded outings against the Swallows. Both lineups are still unconfirmed for today, so keep in mind these are based on the most recent rosters. At the plate, the Swallows have actually cooled off, dropping from a .241 season average to .211 over their last five games, while the Carp have heated up, going from .235 to .286 over the same stretch. Bullpen usage is similar for both sides at around 10 innings recently, but the Swallows relief ERA (6.67) has been shaky compared to the Carps much sharper 3.09. Add it all up and while the standings and head-to-head favor the Swallows, the Carp look better in recent hitting form and bullpen reliability, outside of Aduwas tiny sample, this could be closer than the records suggest.