[Jul 26, 2026 (Sun)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Carp vs Swallows Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Carp vs Swallows (Jul 26, 2026 (Sun)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Carp vs Swallows (07.26 18:00, Jingu Stadium)

Starters: Carp Mori Shohei / Swallows Yoshimura Kojiro

Looking at the standings, Yakult sit third at 44-46 (.489) while Hiroshima are fifth at 34-50 (.405), and the recent trend favors Yakult too, having won three straight while Hiroshima have dropped two in a row. The season series leans the same way, with Yakult holding a 10-6 edge over Hiroshima, so there is no real reversal here; everything points toward Yakult having the slight upper hand tonight.

On the mound, Mori has been steady in the 141-143 km/h range over his last five outings with no real velocity drop, and Yoshimura has held a consistent 147-148 km/h as well, so neither starter shows an obvious dip in stuff. Mori's season ERA of 2.64 looks much sharper than Yoshimura's 4.42, but the picture shifts when you look at recent form -- Mori's FIP over his last five starts comes out to 4.03 and Yoshimura's to 5.47, both well above their season numbers, suggesting neither has actually been pitching to their season-long results lately. Yoshimura in particular has been giving up more home runs in his recent starts.

Yoshimura does have some history against Hiroshima, picking up a win on June 19 (7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER) before taking a loss on April 21 (6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER), so it is an even 1-1 split there.

Neither lineup is confirmed yet for tonight, so the following is based on the most recent lineups on file. Under that lineup, Hiroshima's Fabian Sandro has gone 1-for-3 with a home run against Yoshimura before, though the sample is small enough that it is worth only a passing mention.

Team-wide, both offenses have warmed up slightly -- Hiroshima from a .234 season average to .256 over their last five games, and Yakult from .253 to .268 -- so there is not much separation there. In the bullpen, Hiroshima's relievers have a 3.13 ERA over their last 13.1 innings of work, while Yakult's pen has been shakier at 5.26 over 14 innings, which could matter more in the late innings.

Put it all together and the standings, season series, and recent form all lean slightly toward Yakult, but Yoshimura's recent dip in form and Hiroshima's sharper bullpen leave enough room for this one to be closer than the numbers on paper suggest.