[Aug 2, 2026 (Sun)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Dragons vs Carp Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Dragons vs Carp (Aug 2, 2026 (Sun)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Dragons vs Carp (Aug 2, 18:00, Mazda Stadium)

Starters: Dragons Yuya Yanagi / Carp Makoto Aduwa

This one's between the Central League's 6th-place Dragons (39-56-1, .411) and 5th-place Carp (36-51-4, .414) - the winning percentages are close enough that the standings barely separate them. It's about as even a bottom-of-the-table matchup as you'll find. Momentum splits slightly - the Dragons are on a 1-game win streak, the Carp on a 1-game skid.

The head-to-head gives the Dragons a narrow edge, 3-2 over the last 5 meetings, and they won yesterday (8/1) 7-1 on the road too. Today's forecast is cloudy but dry (0% chance of rain, a hot 32.5°C), so unlike the other games today, weather shouldn't be much of a factor here.

On stuff, Yanagi has held a steady low-140s band - 142.2, 140.9, 140.3, 142.0, 142.3 km/h - while Aduwa has made so few starts (just 7/17 and 7/24) there are only two data points, 142.5 and 143.5.

Season ERA favors Yanagi, 2.55 over a real workload (106 innings, 17 starts), while Aduwa's 3.60 comes from just 10 innings across 2 starts - too small a sample to lean on much. Team rotation FIP tells a similar story - Dragons 3.15, Carp 3.23, a modest edge for the Dragons.

Yanagi has faced the Carp three times this season, going 1-2, but his ERAs in those starts (2.70, 3.60, 1.50) were solid - the record undersells how well he's actually pitched against them. Aduwa has no starts against the Dragons yet.

Neither lineup is confirmed yet. Based on what's tracked so far, the Carp's hitters are 10-for-38 (.263) against Yanagi, actually a bit above their .241 season average, while the Dragons have no recorded at-bats against Aduwa.

The bullpens lean slightly Carp - a 3.15 ERA over the last 10 games versus 3.30 for the Dragons, and that's despite the Carp's pen carrying a heavier recent workload (10.0 innings versus 7.0).

Offensively, the two are moving in opposite directions. The Dragons have cooled from .247 to .224 over their last 5 games, while the Carp have heated up from .241 to .263.

In summary, with the standings this close, there's no clear favorite from the table alone. The head-to-head, yesterday's result, and the individual starter numbers (with the sample-size caveat on Aduwa) lean slightly Dragons, while the bullpen and recent hitting form lean Carp. Expect a close one.