[Aug 3, 2026 (Mon)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Eagles vs Buffaloes Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Eagles vs Buffaloes (Aug 3, 2026 (Mon)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Eagles vs Buffaloes (Aug 3, 18:00, Tokyo Dome)

Starters: Eagles Kosei Shoji / Buffaloes Aren Kuri

Looking at the standings alone, this one clearly favors the Buffaloes. Orix sit 4th in the Pacific League at .495 (47-48-2) while Rakuten are 6th at .391 (36-56-1), a gap of more than 10 points in winning percentage. Recent form isn't great for either side either, but Rakuten look worse off - they're on a 4-game losing streak compared to Orix's 2-game skid.

Here's where things get interesting though. Regardless of the standings, Rakuten actually hold a 4-1 edge in the season series against Orix, including a full three-game sweep from July 14-16. So purely in this particular matchup, Rakuten haven't been the team on the back foot at all.

Looking at starter condition through recent velocity, Kosei Shoji has been steady in the 149-150 km/h range over his last five outings (148.1 → 150.0 → 149.0 → 150.0 → 149.6), showing no signs of fatigue. Aren Kuri has held fairly steady too at 142-143 km/h (143.4 → 142.5 → 141.9 → 142.8 → 142.6), though his raw velocity is a notch below Shoji's.

On season ERA, both are respectable but there's a real gap - Kuri sits at 2.92 versus Shoji's 4.13, more than a full run apart. Team starter FIP tells a similar story, with Orix at 3.19 and Rakuten at 3.50, so on paper the Buffaloes rotation is a level above.

That gap actually widens when you isolate the last five starts. Kuri's rolled-up ERA over that stretch works out to 2.45, even better than his season mark, while Shoji has slipped to 4.97, worse than his season average. One thing worth flagging on Kuri though - in his very last start (July 26 vs Chiba Lotte) he struck out 10 but still gave up 9 hits and 3 earned runs over 6 innings, so contact quality wasn't great even in a decent line.

Checking the two starters' history against today's opponent, Kuri has faced Rakuten five times this season, and in his most recent start on July 14 he took the loss despite 6 innings and just 2 earned runs. Shoji has faced Orix only twice this season (May 12 and March 27) - a small sample, but the May 12 start stands out as a tough-luck loss (6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K).

Lineups aren't locked in for either side yet as of writing, so both are being projected off their most recent completed game - they usually firm up about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check back closer to game time.

Based on that projected lineup, Orix's hitters have generally struggled against Shoji in a small sample (mostly hitting under .200). Rakuten's lineup, on the other hand, has had some success against Kuri near the top of the order - Yuma Yasuda stands out at 2-for-4 with a 256.1 wRC+, and Ryosuke Tatsumi and Fumiya Kurokawa are both above a 100 wRC+ as well.

Both bullpens have been rough lately. Recent bullpen ERA sits at 5.87 for Orix and 5.83 for Rakuten, essentially even, but Orix has leaned on 10 different relievers recently versus just 6 for Rakuten, so their pen looks more taxed.

On team offense, Orix have been trending up, going from a .260 season average to .268 over their last five games, while Rakuten have cooled off, dropping from .265 to .248 over the same stretch.

In summary, most of the indicators here - standings, starter quality, recent form, and offensive trend - point toward Orix. That said, Rakuten's 4-1 edge in the season series and Orix's more heavily used bullpen are real factors that could keep this one from being one-sided.