[Sep 27, 2026 (Sun)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Buffaloes @ Hawks Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Buffaloes @ Hawks (Sep 27, 2026 (Sun)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

09/27 Buffaloes vs Hawks

Buffaloes starting pitcher: Takashima Taito Hawks starting pitcher: Ohtsu Ryosuke

This is a one-off game (1 of 1). The first-place Hawks (.652) have won four straight, while the 4th-place Buffaloes (.471) have lost two in a row. Two days ago the Hawks beat the Buffaloes 9-0, and they lead the season series 14-10.

Takashima Taito has a 4.56 ERA with a 3.87 FIP, and a high .351 BABIP suggests his results have been worse than his process on the season. The concern is his recent form. Over his last five starts (24.1 innings) his FIP is 6.51, with six home runs allowed, a 1.81 WHIP and a K-BB% of just 0.9%. His SwStr% (8.4%) and CSW% (21.1%) are also down from his season marks (9.4%/25.2%). His average velocity has actually ticked up to around 150-151 km/h, so the problem looks like command and home runs rather than lost stuff. Today he pitches on the road, where he has a 4.98 ERA and 4.97 FIP with 10 homers allowed in 47 innings, compared with just one homer in 49.2 innings at home.

Ohtsu Ryosuke has a 2.58 ERA and a 3.41 FIP, so his results have run a bit ahead of his process. Even so, an 11.5% SwStr%, 29.4% CSW% and 4.8% walk rate show solid stuff and command. At home, where he pitches today, he has a 2.06 ERA and 3.31 FIP over 74.1 innings, but a very high 94.5% LOB% at home means that ERA may not hold. His last five starts (34 innings) produced a respectable 3.54 FIP, though his most recent outing on 9/20 against the Eagles included three homers and five earned runs. His average velocity has also dipped from 148 km/h in late August to about 146 recently.

The head-to-head numbers split sharply. Takashima has a 4.95 ERA, 5.52 FIP and four homers allowed in four starts (20 innings) against the Hawks this year, including a 4.1-inning, 6-run outing on 8/22. Ohtsu has a 0.90 ERA with no homers allowed in three starts (20 innings) against the Buffaloes, though his FIP there is 2.27 and opponents hit .266, so he did give up his share of hits. Both are samples of only three or four starts.

Neither lineup is confirmed yet, so these are based on each team's previous game. The gap in form is large. The Buffaloes' last-five team wOBA is .252, well below their season .311, and they have been shut out in two straight games. Ohta Ryo (.117 wOBA over the last five) and Nishikawa Ryoma (.127) are especially cold; Ohta is 0-for-8 against Ohtsu, while Nishikawa is 4-for-10 against him. The Hawks' last-five team wOBA is .374, above their season .358, and they scored 6, 10, 9 and 4 runs during the winning streak. Kurihara Ryoya, who has 39 homers (.487 wOBA over the last five), and Makihara Taisei (.518) are red-hot. Kondoh Kensuke is 5-for-8 against Takashima and Kurihara is 4-for-9. All of these are small samples of around 10 plate appearances.

The Hawks also have the better bullpen, with a 1.83 ERA over the last 10 games against 3.65 for the Buffaloes. The Buffaloes' pen has also been used more recently (11.3 innings by 11 pitchers versus 9 innings by 8). The game is at Fukuoka Dome, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, the Hawks lead on starting pitching, offense and bullpen. Ohtsu's home numbers probably include some strand-rate luck, but a Buffaloes lineup this cold may struggle to take advantage of it. The biggest swing factor is whether Takashima, whose home run problem has spiked lately, can keep the ball in the park against a Hawks lineup led by Kurihara and Kondoh.