[Sep 27, 2026 (Sun)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Eagles @ Lions Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Eagles @ Lions (Sep 27, 2026 (Sun)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

09/27 Eagles vs Lions

Eagles starting pitcher: Hayakawa Takahisa Lions starting pitcher: Fuji Yamato

This is the first game of a two-game set (1 of 2). The 2nd-place Lions (.560) beat the Marines 5-4 last time out, while the 6th-place Eagles (.403) were shut out 4-0 by the Hawks. The Lions lead the season series 14-8.

On paper the starting matchup tilts heavily one way. Hayakawa Takahisa has a 2.83 ERA and 3.12 FIP over 140 innings, so both results and process are good. His last five starts (33 innings), however, show a 3.99 FIP, and his SwStr% (8.6% vs 11.6% on the season) and K-BB% (7.8% vs 16.5%) have dropped noticeably. His .215 opponent average is holding up, helped by a .222 BABIP. His velocity has stayed around 142 km/h, so the thing to watch is his swing-and-miss stuff rather than velocity. On the road, where he pitches today, he has a 3.12 ERA and 3.14 FIP over 52 innings.

Fuji Yamato has only two first-team appearances this year, both in March and early April, totaling two innings. On 3/28 against the Marines he allowed five runs without recording an out, and on 4/1 against the Buffaloes he threw two scoreless innings. He has not pitched for the top team since, so there is very little to go on for today. His average velocity back then was 146-147 km/h, and he has never faced the Eagles.

Hayakawa has been especially tough on the Lions this year: a 0.90 ERA and .160 opponent average in four starts (30 innings), going at least seven innings every time. A 95.5% LOB% and .182 BABIP mean some luck was involved, but his 2.84 FIP against them is still good. If anything, the Eagles' offense let him down, as he took the loss in three of those four starts.

Neither lineup is confirmed yet, so these are based on each team's previous game. The Lions' last-five team wOBA is .339, above their season .310, and they have hit nine homers in five games. Canario Alexander is the hottest bat (three homers, .531 wOBA over the last five) but is just 2-for-11 against Hayakawa. Nevin Tyler, who has 21 homers, has cooled to a .150 wOBA over the last five and is 0-for-6 against Hayakawa, while Watanabe Seiya is 3-for-9 against him. The Eagles' last-five team wOBA is .297, slightly below their season .313. McCusker Carson, who has 23 homers, is swinging well (.461 wOBA over the last five), as is Murabayashi Itsuki (.406), while Nakashima Daisuke (.213) and Muneyama Rui (.243) are struggling. All of these are small samples.

The Eagles have the better bullpen, with a 3.33 ERA over the last 10 games against 4.62 for the Lions. Recent workloads are similar (9 innings for the Eagles, 11 for the Lions, nine pitchers each). If Fuji cannot go deep given how little he has pitched, the Lions' bullpen could enter early, which adds another variable. The game is at Belluna Dome, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, the starting matchup favors Hayakawa, who has dominated the Lions this year, and the Eagles also have the better bullpen, while the Lions' offense is the hotter one with its power back. The biggest swing factor is whether Hayakawa, whose swing-and-miss rate has dipped lately, can still pitch deep against a Lions lineup that is hitting for power, as he did in their earlier meetings.