[Sep 28, 2026 (Mon)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Fighters @ Marines Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Fighters @ Marines (Sep 28, 2026 (Mon)).

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09/28 Fighters vs Marines

Fighters starting pitcher: Ren Fukushima Marines starting pitcher: Andre Jackson

This is the second game of a two-game set, played Monday night at ZOZO Marine Stadium after yesterday's opener. The Fighters are 3rd (.551) after one loss, the Marines are 5th (.458) after one win, and the Fighters lead the season series 13-10. The Marines won yesterday 6-1. Standings are context only, so let's go straight to the pitchers.

With the Fighters' Ren Fukushima, the first thing to look at is how he's being used. His last five appearances were all short stints of one to two innings (seven innings total), and every outing against the Marines this year has also been one or two innings. So even as today's starter, there is a real chance this turns into a short outing handed off to the bullpen rather than a deep start. The stuff itself is good: a 3.35 ERA with a better 2.95 FIP over 75⅓ innings, a strong 14.5% SwStr%, and an average fastball that has actually ticked up to 151-152 km/h lately (topping out at 153-154). He is on the road today, where he has a 2.13 ERA and 2.64 FIP over 42⅓ innings, though an 86.4% LOB% says he has stranded runners at a very high rate - worth keeping the sample in mind there.

The Marines' Andre Jackson has a 3.44 ERA and 3.60 FIP over 144 innings, so results and process are about even. He throws hard - 152-155 km/h on average, up to 156-158 - with an 11.8% SwStr%, but walks (9.2% BB%) are his weak spot, and that has gotten worse lately. Over his last five starts (26⅔ IP) his FIP is 4.21 with an 11.3% walk rate and four homers allowed, and in his September 22 outing, his first in 18 days, he gave up two home runs in five innings. He is at home today, where his 3.24 ERA and 3.49 FIP over 66⅔ innings are a bit better than his road numbers.

Against the Fighters he has a 4.22 ERA and 3.70 FIP over five starts (42⅔ IP). They have hit only .190 against him, but a 67.5% LOB% shows he hasn't stranded the runners he did allow, and his most recent meeting on August 29 was a rough one: four innings, six earned runs.

Neither lineup has been confirmed yet, so this is based on each team's most recent lineup. The Fighters' offense has cooled from a .252 average and .322 wOBA to .239 and .272 over the last five games, with Kotaro Kiyomiya (23 HR, .235 lately) and Chusei Mannami (21 HR, .143) especially quiet. What stands out is how well Jackson has handled their core hitters in fairly meaningful samples of about 15 at-bats each: Kiyomiya 1-for-16, Tatsuki Mizuno 2-for-16, Yuki Nomura 2-for-15, Mannami 2-for-15. The Marines have also cooled, from .252 to .225 over the last five. Koki Yamaguchi (32 HR, 158.9 wRC+) is holding steady at .263, but Kyota Fujiwara (.056) and Toshiya Satoh (.100) are slumping, while Ryusei Terachi (.353) and Akito Takabe (.421) are hot. Against Fukushima, Satoh (3-for-8) and Ryusei Ogawa (3-for-5) stand out, both in small samples.

Both bullpens are shaky: a 4.22 ERA over the last ten games for the Fighters and 4.91 for the Marines, with similar recent workloads (4⅔ innings and six pitchers for the Fighters, 6⅔ innings and five pitchers for the Marines over the last three games). But if Fukushima goes short, the Fighters' pen will have to cover a lot of the middle and late innings, so its role is likely bigger than usual today. It's 22.9°C with a 61% chance of rain at an open-air park, so a rain delay or stoppage is worth keeping an eye on.

In summary, this one is hard to judge from the starters' names alone. Fukushima's stuff grades well but his recent usage makes a long outing unlikely, and Jackson is fine over the full season but has been walking more hitters and giving up more homers lately. The biggest variable is how many innings Fukushima can cover and whether the Fighters' bullpen, with a 4-plus ERA over its last ten games, can hold up behind him. And even if Jackson's control wobbles again, keep in mind that the Fighters' core hitters have barely touched him in roughly 15 at-bats apiece.