[Sep 29, 2026 (Tue)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Buffaloes @ Lions Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Buffaloes @ Lions (Sep 29, 2026 (Tue)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

09/29 Buffaloes vs Lions

Buffaloes starting pitcher: Kaisei Toumatsu Lions starting pitcher: Kaima Taira

This is a single game at Belluna Dome. The Lions are 2nd (.559) and the Buffaloes 4th (.468), and the Buffaloes have lost three straight. The season series has been nearly even, 12-11 in the Lions' favor.

The starting matchup leans heavily toward the Lions' Kaima Taira. Over 139 innings he has a 1.36 ERA and 2.33 FIP with a 13.7% SwStr% and 29.5% CSW%, so both the results and the process are outstanding. His last five starts are even sharper: 4 runs over 36 innings and a 1.89 FIP, with his SwStr% up to 17.8%, his CSW% at 34.3%, and just 5 walks (3.8% walk rate). He's averaging 154-156 km/h and touching 160. That said, a .246 BABIP and 86.5% strand rate on the season mean luck has helped too, which is why his ERA sits below his FIP. The underlying numbers are strong enough that a collapse is unlikely, but whether a sub-2 ERA holds up is worth watching. At home tonight, he has a 1.06 ERA and 2.10 FIP over 51 innings.

The Buffaloes' Kaisei Toumatsu has thrown only 9 innings this season, which makes him hard to evaluate. In March and April he made short outings of about an inning, and his only real start came on September 22 against the Marines (5 IP, 3 ER). He has a 7.00 ERA and 7.12 FIP with 11 walks (25% walk rate), so command is the main issue. His average velocity has also dipped from 150-152 km/h early in the season to 146.5 km/h lately. His only appearance against the Lions was 0.2 innings on March 31.

Taira has handled the Buffaloes, allowing 2 earned runs over 15 innings in two starts (1.20 ERA), including 8 scoreless innings on September 8. The Buffaloes' projected lineup is also just 6-for-33 (.182) against him, although at 2-7 at-bats per hitter the sample size needs to be kept in mind.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so these are based on each team's last lineup. The Buffaloes' offense has gone ice cold, from a .316 season wOBA to .219 over the last five games, scoring 5, 0 and 0 runs in their last three. Ryoto Kita (.208 wOBA lately) and Ryo Ohta (.117) are slumping badly, with Kotaro Kurebayashi (2 homers in the last five) the lone bright spot. The Lions are at their norm (.312 season, .319 lately), with Taiga Kojima and Kazunari Ishii swinging well and Tyler Nevin (.235 lately) cooling off.

Both bullpens have been worked hard recently: the Buffaloes used 11 arms over 14.7 innings, the Lions 9 arms over 18 innings. The Lions have the better 10-game bullpen ERA, 3.35 to 4.89. It's a dome game, so weather isn't a factor.

In summary, the starting matchup leans clearly toward Taira, and the Buffaloes' bats have gone cold. The biggest variable tonight is whether the Buffaloes can create any early chances against Taira. If Toumatsu struggles with walks and exits early, an already taxed Buffaloes bullpen will have to cover a lot of innings as well.