[Sep 30, 2026 (Wed)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Marines @ Eagles Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Marines @ Eagles (Sep 30, 2026 (Wed)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

09/30 Marines vs Eagles

Marines starting pitcher: Lucchesi Joey Eagles starting pitcher: Shoji Kosei

This is the second and final game of the two-game set at Rakuten Mobile Park. The Marines won yesterday, 6-3. The Marines sit 5th (.459) and the Eagles 6th (.401), and the Marines lead the season series comfortably at 15-8.

On the mound, Shoji clearly has the better underlying numbers. He has thrown 151 innings with a 3.64 ERA, but his FIP is better at 3.14, and his 14.1% SwStr%, 30.9% CSW% and 20.4% K-BB% are the numbers of an upper-tier starter. His last five starts have been even better: 42 strikeouts against 6 walks in 34 innings, a 1.22 FIP and a 16.3% SwStr%. His BABIP in that span is a high .364, so if anything his results have lagged behind his stuff. His velocity has also climbed steadily, from 147.7 km/h (9/2) to 151.4 km/h (9/23), topping out at 155 km/h in his last start.

Lucchesi has only made four starts (22 innings) this season, so the sample is small. His 2.86 ERA and 3.01 FIP look good, but hitters are batting just .156 against him with a .193 BABIP, meaning balls in play have rarely turned into hits. Meanwhile his walk rate is high at 11.5%, and his 9.4% SwStr% and 26.3% CSW% are ordinary. It is fair to say his results are running ahead of his underlying performance. His starts have been uneven, too: seven scoreless innings against the Buffaloes on 9/23, but four innings and five earned runs with four walks against the Hawks on 9/13. His seven scoreless innings against the Buffaloes on 9/6 also came with four walks and a 4.9% SwStr%, so luck played a part. On the road he has a 4.09 ERA, 4.69 FIP and 16.7% walk rate, but that is only 11 innings. This will be his first start against the Eagles.

Shoji has faced the Marines five times this season: 37 innings, 3.89 ERA and 3.29 FIP, close to his season averages. His last two outings against them were mixed (nine scoreless innings on 9/16, six innings and four earned runs on 9/9), and he has allowed six home runs to the Marines in those five starts.

Neither lineup is confirmed yet, so these are based on the previous game. The Marines' offense has a .319 wOBA over the last five games, slightly above its season mark (.309), while the Eagles have cooled noticeably at .271 over the last five games (season .304). Yamaguchi Koki (33 HR, 158.9 wRC+) anchors the Marines and is 3-for-11 against Shoji. Terachi Ryusei has hit Shoji well (5-for-11), while Fujiwara Kyota is just 1-for-14 against him and hitless over the last five games. The Eagles hitters are seeing Lucchesi for the first time. With regulars like Muneyama Rui (.158 over the last five games) slumping, the key question is whether they can turn Lucchesi's walks into runs.

The Eagles have the better bullpen, with a 3.08 ERA over the last 10 games against the Marines' 5.34. Recent workload is similar: 9⅓ innings over 8 pitchers for the Marines and 8 innings over 7 pitchers for the Eagles.

The weather should not be a factor: 18.9°C, wind 0.7 m/s, and a 0% chance of rain.

In summary, the Eagles have the edge in starting pitching quality and bullpen, while the Marines have the head-to-head record and the hotter bats. The biggest variable is Lucchesi's walks. He has survived on a low BABIP, and if he keeps putting runners on while Shoji works deep into the game, even the Eagles' cold lineup has a real chance to take control.