[Oct 1, 2026 (Thu)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Hawks @ Eagles Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Hawks @ Eagles (Oct 1, 2026 (Thu)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/01 Hawks vs Eagles

Hawks starting pitcher: Uwasawa Naoyuki Eagles starting pitcher: Takinaka Ryota

This is a single game at Rakuten Mobile Park Miyagi. The Hawks are in 1st place (.654) and riding a five-game winning streak, while the Eagles are 6th (.406). Even so, the season series was nearly even at 12-11 in the Hawks' favor.

The starting matchup clearly favors the Hawks. Uwasawa has a 2.45 ERA and 2.95 FIP over 128⅓ innings, good results backed by good process, and over his last five starts (32 IP) he has a 2.41 FIP and a 15.1% SwStr%, well above his 11.6% season mark. On 9/2 against the Fighters he struck out 10 over eight innings with a 20.3% SwStr%. His average fastball has held steady around 149 km/h.

Takinaka has a 3.79 ERA and 3.89 FIP over 107 innings, results in line with his process, but with a 5.5% K-BB% and 8.1% SwStr% he doesn't miss many bats. His recent form is worse: just eight strikeouts over his last five starts (28⅓ IP), a 0.8% K-BB%, a .314 opponent average and a 4.79 FIP. In two of his last three starts (9/6 and 9/20) he didn't record a single strikeout. His average fastball sits at 142-143 km/h.

The head-to-head samples are small. Uwasawa hasn't allowed an earned run in two starts (10 IP) against the Eagles, but he walked seven with a 4.88 FIP, so the process wasn't as good as the results (including four walks in three innings on 5/15). Takinaka beat the Hawks on 9/20 with five innings and three earned runs, but again without a strikeout.

Lineups are unconfirmed and based on the last game. The gap between the two offenses is the key to this game. The Hawks are exploding, with a .449 team wOBA and 11 home runs over their last five games on top of a 138.7 season wRC+. Kondoh Kensuke (30 HR, 184.2 wRC+) has a .526 wOBA over that span, Kurihara Ryoya has 39 homers on the season, and Yanagita Yuki is at .517. The Eagles have cooled sharply to a .247 team wOBA over the last five games (.305 on the season), with Yasuda Yuma (.208), Murabayashi Itsuki (.186) and Taira Ryuya (.141) all slumping.

The Hawks' bullpen is slightly better, with a 2.43 ERA over the last ten games against the Eagles' 3.00, and recent workloads are similar: 10 innings (7 pitchers) for the Hawks and 8 innings (6 pitchers) for the Eagles.

On splits, Uwasawa has a 1.61 ERA on the road over 56 innings versus 3.11 at home over 72⅓, but his FIP is nearly identical (2.87 vs 3.02). Takinaka's home (60⅓ IP) and road (46⅔ IP) FIPs are also the same at 3.89 and 3.90. It will be 23.5°C with a 1.4 m/s wind, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, the Hawks hold the edge in starting pitching, hitting and the bullpen. The biggest variable tonight is how long Takinaka, who is barely striking anyone out, can survive against a Hawks lineup with a .449 wOBA over its last five games. For the Eagles, the close season series and Uwasawa's high walk count against them are the reasons for hope.