[Oct 11, 2026 (Sun)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Fighters @ Lions Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Fighters @ Lions (Oct 11, 2026 (Sun)).

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

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10/11 Fighters vs Lions

Fighters starting pitcher: Tatsu Kota Lions starting pitcher: Takahashi Kona

This is Game 2 of a three-game series, and the Lions took Game 1 yesterday 3-2. The two teams were nearly identical in the regular season - Lions 2nd (.568), Fighters 3rd (.557) - and split the season series exactly 12-12. The Lions have won four straight; the Fighters are 3-2 over their last five.

On process, Tatsu Kota has the better profile. He has a 2.96 ERA, 2.85 FIP and 0.99 WHIP with a 13.3% SwStr% and 19.2% K-BB% - strong swing-and-miss and command. His last five starts (35 IP) are just as steady: 2.86 FIP and 0.89 WHIP. That said, his recent BABIP of .218 suggests a bit of good luck, and his average velocity has slipped from 153 km/h in June to 149-150 km/h lately. He has also been better at home (2.30 ERA in 66.2 IP) than on the road (3.72 in 58 IP). Against the Lions he has a 2.45 ERA and 2.56 FIP in 33 innings, including his last two starts: seven innings, two runs, and a nine-inning, one-run complete game.

Takahashi Kona has the better ERA at 2.54, but his FIP is 3.34. A .239 BABIP and 79.9% strand rate say his results have outrun his process, and his 10% SwStr% and 12.1% K-BB% are a notch below Tatsu's. Over his last five starts (24.2 IP) his FIP is 3.95 with a 10.5% walk rate, and on 9/4 against the Hawks he lasted only two innings. On the other hand his stuff is trending up - average velocity has climbed from 151 km/h to 154.1 km/h (max 157). He is clearly better at home (1.70 ERA, 2.88 FIP in 74.1 IP) than on the road (3.52 ERA). Against the Fighters he has a 4.67 ERA, 5.25 FIP and four home runs allowed in 17.1 innings, but that is only three starts.

Lineups are not confirmed, so these are from the previous game. The Fighters' offense is holding at its usual level - team wRC+ 118.5 on the season and a .328 wOBA over the last five games. Franmil Reyes (32 HR, .405 wOBA) is the centerpiece, and Mannami Chusei is 3-for-3 against Kona. Kiyomiya Kotaro is slumping at .063 over the last five games. The Lions' offense has cooled to a .289 wOBA (season team wRC+ 104.2), so their four-game streak has come more from pitching than hitting; only Hasegawa Shinya (.527 wOBA, 2 HR in his last five) is hot. More importantly, their key hitters have struggled against Tatsu: Canario 4-for-13, Hirasawa 3-for-13, Kojima 2-for-10 and Takizawa 1-for-9.

The Lions have the bullpen edge, with a 3.00 bullpen ERA over the last 10 games versus 4.11 for the Fighters. Recent workload is similar (Fighters 12.3 IP with eight pitchers, Lions 13 IP with nine). It's a dome, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, the Fighters have the better starting pitcher on process and the better recent offense: Tatsu has been consistently strong and has handled the Lions' hitters, while the Lions' bats are cold. Kona's results have been better than his underlying numbers, but he is strong at home, his velocity is rising, and the Lions' bullpen is better. Beyond the standings and yesterday's result, the matchup leans slightly toward the Fighters - but if Kona finds his command at home, this has the makings of a low-scoring pitchers' duel.