[Oct 15, 2026 (Thu)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis BayStars @ Tigers Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of BayStars @ Tigers (Oct 15, 2026 (Thu)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/15 요코하마 vs 한신 요코하마 starting pitcher: Ogata Shuto 한신 starting pitcher: Takahashi Haruto

This is Game 2 of 2. 요코하마 is third (50.7%) and on a two-game winning streak. 한신 is first (56.0%) and has lost one straight. The season series is 12-13 for 요코하마 and 13-12 for 한신. 요코하마 won yesterday 2-0. The game is at 한신 고시엔 with 21.6°C, 2.9 m/s wind and 0% chance of rain.

Ogata is 7-3 with a 3.29 ERA and a 3.56 FIP, so his results and process roughly match. His SwStr% is 12.8% and CSW% is 30.8%. Over his last five starts (19.2 IP) his FIP is 4.27 with three homers, SwStr% 10.7% and CSW% 30.5%. A .193 BABIP and .189 opponent average make those results look better than the underlying work. His velocity went from 152.8, 152.4 and 150.2 to 156.8 and 154.1 average. Against 한신 he has a 2.66 ERA and 3.22 FIP over 23.2 IP, and he threw 1.0 scoreless inning there on 10/4.

Takahashi is 16-3 with a 1.87 ERA, 2.00 FIP and 0.88 WHIP. His SwStr% is 13%, CSW% 31.6% and BB% 2.8%, so the process backs up the results. His last five starts (32.2 IP) show a 1.69 FIP and 21.2% K-BB%. His average velocity stayed between 146.3 and 147.1. Against 요코하마 he has a 2.63 ERA and 3.25 FIP over 24 IP, with a .250 opponent average and three homers. His SwStr% is 9.7% and CSW% 29.3%, both below his season marks. In four starts there, he allowed 4 earned runs in 4.0 IP on 8/5.

Lineups are unconfirmed, so this uses the previous game's lineups. 요코하마 hit .230/.322/.318 (wOBA) with five homers over its last five games. Maki Shugo (.368/.455/.539) and Sano Keita (.412/.474/.484) are hot. Against Takahashi, Tsutsugo Yoshitomo is 3-for-5 and Maki is 3-for-11. Watarai Ryuki is 1-for-10. 한신 has a 149.8 team wRC+ for the season but hit .184/.288/.256 with one homer over its last five games. Sato Teruaki is at .050 and Nakano Takumu at .000 in that stretch. Oyama Yusuke is at .471/.500/.497. Against Ogata, Oyama is 4-for-11, Takatera Nozomu is 4-for-9 and Sato is 1-for-8. All of these samples are small.

For the bullpens, 요코하마 has used 9.3 recent innings across 4 pitchers and 한신 16.7 innings across 10 pitchers. Their ERAs over the last 10 games are 2.5 and 2.09. 한신 has thrown more but has been steady.

In summary, the season-long process favors Takahashi. His weaker numbers against 요코하마 and 한신's cold bats are the variables. The keys are whether Ogata can get past his recent 4.27 FIP and whether 한신's lineup wakes up.