[Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis BayStars @ Tigers Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of BayStars @ Tigers (Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/16 요코하마 vs 한신

요코하마 starting pitcher: Katayama Hiromi 한신 starting pitcher: Saiki Hiroto

This is Game 3 of the Central Final, a best-of-6 format where the first to 4 wins advances. It includes a 1-win advantage for the 1st seed. Before this game the series stands at 요코하마 2 wins, 한신 1 win. 요코하마 finished 3rd (50.7%) on a 2-game winning streak, and 한신 finished 1st (56.0%) with a 1-game losing streak. 요코하마 won the first two games 1-0 and 2-0, and 한신 has not scored in either one. In the regular season, 요코하마 went 12-13 against 한신.

Katayama is 3-2 with a 2.64 ERA over 44.1 innings, but his FIP is 3.11, with SwStr% 9.7% and CSW% 29.6%. In his last five starts he has a 2.89 FIP over 30.2 innings, with a .197 BABIP, 85.9% LOB% and 15 walks (BB% 11.8%). His results look slightly better than his process, and walks are the key. His average velocity went from 142.1 on August 16 to 140.2 on September 11, then came back to 141.5 on September 27. He has pitched 0 innings against 한신, so there is no sample.

Saiki is 10-5 with a 2.51 ERA over 154 innings, with a 2.24 FIP, SwStr% 13.3% and CSW% 30.2%, so his results match his process. His last five starts show a 2.16 FIP over 30.0 innings and a 5% walk rate, though his latest outing on October 3 was 3.0 innings with 4 earned runs. His average velocity was 151.6 on June 16 and has been between 147.9 and 148.8 recently. At home he has a 0.82 ERA (1.10 FIP) over 99 innings, versus 5.56 (4.30 FIP) over 55 innings on the road, and tonight he is at 고시엔. Against 요코하마 he has a 2.4 ERA and 2.96 FIP over 30 innings. He went 4-1 in his last five starts against them, but on September 26 his SwStr% was only 3.3% over 5.0 innings, and on April 21 he allowed 6 earned runs in 5.0 innings.

Both lineups are unconfirmed, so this uses the previous game's lineups. 요코하마 hit .236/.281 with 6 homers over its last five games. 마키 슈고 is at .400 with 3 homers and 사노 케이타 at .412, while 엔카르나시온 헤라 is at .143. Against Saiki, 사노 is 5-for-14, 미야자키 토시로 is 3-for-8, 마키 is 1-for-11 and 와타라이 류키 is 3-for-15. 한신 hit .193/.304 with no homers over its last five. 오오야마 유스케 (.467) and 후시미 토라이 (.429) are hot, while 나카노 타쿠무 is at .071. There is no 한신 history against Katayama.

Recent bullpen workload is 12.3 innings for 요코하마 and 8 innings for 한신, with 7 pitchers each. Last-10-game bullpen ERA is 2.65 for 요코하마 and 1.67 for 한신. Weather is 22.2°C with a 0% chance of rain.

In summary, 한신 has the edge on the mound, with Saiki at home and backed by his process numbers. But 요코하마 leads the series after two straight shutouts, so whether 한신's bats wake up is the key. Katayama's walks and a more heavily used 요코하마 bullpen are also worth watching.