[Oct 25, 2026 (Sun)] NPB Japanese Baseball Analysis Hawks @ BayStars Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NPB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Hawks @ BayStars (Oct 25, 2026 (Sun)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in about 30 minutes before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/25 소프트뱅크 vs 요코하마

소프트뱅크 starting pitcher: Moinelo Livan 요코하마 starting pitcher: Ogata Shuto

This is Game 2 of the Japan Series, a first-to-four-wins format. 소프트뱅크 took Game 1 by 3-1 and leads 1-0. In the regular season, 소프트뱅크 went 91-49 (65%) and 요코하마 went 71-69 (51%). 소프트뱅크 won the season series 2-1.

Livan is 6-1 with a 1.26 ERA, but his FIP is 3.09. A .184 BABIP and 88.2% LOB% helped, so the ERA looks better than the underlying work. His 12.4% SwStr% and 27.6% CSW% still show real swing-and-miss ability. Over his last five starts (29.0 IP) his FIP is 3.91, his K-BB% is 4.2%, and his SwStr% and CSW% are 11% and 24.5%. His last outing, on 10/14, lasted 2.2 innings with 3 earned runs. His average velocity has stayed between 146.4 and 149.1, and it was 147 last time out. He has never faced 요코하마.

Ogata is 7-3 with a 3.14 ERA and a 3.50 FIP, so his results are slightly better than his process. His SwStr% is 12.9% and his CSW% is 30.9%. Over his last five (16.0 IP), his FIP is 4.11 and his SwStr% is 10%. His average velocity fell from 156.8 on 10/3 to 151.8 on 10/15. He faced 소프트뱅크 on 6/7, allowing 1 earned run in 5.0 innings with 7 strikeouts, though that is a single start.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so both use the previous game's lineup. 소프트뱅크 hit .292/.382/.369 over the last five games. 콘도우 켄스케 is at .333/.500/.433, while 야나기타 유키 is at .158/.200/.187. Against Ogata, 마사키 토모야 is 1-for-2, 마키하라 타이세이 is 1-for-2, 슈토 우쿄 is 0-for-3 and 쿠리하라 료야 is 0-for-2. These samples are tiny. 요코하마 hit .233/.292/.300 with 6 homers over the last five. 마키 슈고 is at .412/.545/.624 with 3 homers, while 카지와라 코우키 is at .000.

Recent bullpen workload is 11 innings across 5 pitchers for 소프트뱅크 and 10.3 innings across 8 pitchers for 요코하마. Bullpen ERA over the last 10 games is 1.93 versus 1.49. At 요코하마 스타디움, it is 20.2°C with 2.4 m/s wind and a 78% chance of rain.

In summary, Livan's FIP and recent form trail his ERA, so limiting early damage is the key. Ogata must handle the top of the 소프트뱅크 order with his velocity down from early October. With both bullpens posting low ERAs, how each side manages the innings after a starter exits could decide the game.